Wednesday, October 25, 2017

The NO Tax System


We are conditioned to accept that there must be taxes to pay for the Federal Government. Complete, with arguments like, how will you pay for a proposed tax cut? And who will get a tax cut? However, I say, let us drop the arguments about what is the proper level of taxation, and look at a system where there is no Federal Income Tax at all.

If there was no Federal Income Tax, then whatever money congress authorizes to spend above what is collected from use fees, penalties, and duties would be printed. This, in turn would dilute the monetary supply that already exists, and in theory would inflate the currency at the percentage of the newly printed currency compared to the existing monetary supply. This would cause an erosion of the dollar. This is the bad side of the equation. Which could be a 6% increase based on 4 trillion dollars of spending, and zero revenue on 66 trillion of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). This assumption is based on a static market place, and the GDP is a 2012 number.

However, on the good side of the equation, is the release of money from the private sector that would normally go to the Federal Government. This money, and the added expense to comply with existing taxes, would instead flow back into the private sector and raise the GPD, and expand goods and services, Increasing the market demand on the monetary supply and offset the inflation rate. If this rise in GDP exceeds the percentage of new currency issued, by the government, then then increase in currency would be offset by demand. And since the tax and compliance cost would fall off the price of finished goods, it would create deflationary pressure in a healthy free market system. This also depends on Congress printing new currency, instead of monetizing the spending by issuing new bonds, which would increase the downstream liability of this spending, by adding interest onto the debt. It is only debt if structure it that way, otherwise it is just dollars.

However, the function of the Tax Code is not about the maximization of revenue, otherwise the discussion on capitol hill would be about the Laffer Curve, and what strategies you would use to maximize revenue. Instead, the debate is about who pays and how much. Therefore, the tax structure is not designed to maximize revenue while limiting economic damage, it is about using the tax code to shape the economic patterns of the citizen, by rewarding or punishing behavior. Manly, it is an attempt to convince people that the government can micro manage a large and dynamic economy.

In the brief 103 years of the Income Tax code, the government has had to deficit spend in 86 of those years, and only had surpluses in 22years, with 11 of the surplus years happening within the first 20 years of implementation.  That means that money was created to pay for added spending. Therefore, the government has a history of overspending 86 out of the last 103 years. And the overall average of the past 103 years of collecting 87% of revenue to actual spending (without including Social Security and off budget programs) funded by all taxes. All numbers come from https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2018/hist01z1.xls.

All of this is predicated on the concept that income taxes do not contribute to inflation. Which is a false premise, based on the illusion that the tax only applies to excessive income. Which may be true of a select few individuals, however, most income taxes are collected from someone else’s productivity, with no tangible value added. Any loss in productivity always adds to the inflation of prices. Even losses in profit. Whereas a Use Tax, like the Fuel Tax does at least give you reasonable infrastructure for the money collected.

Therefore, the question becomes, would inflation be higher without the Income Tax Code, or could it be lower, without the Income Tax Code. To answer this, let us look at the downside. First of all, the Income Tax does not provide any productive gains to society, other than the dubious form of wealth redistribution, and it does it at a premium, which I estimate at 3% of GDP, this would be the security detail, that businesses[JS1] ’ employ to protect them from the tax (i.e. CPA’s and Tax Lawyers), in order to lessen its effect on the bottom line. Second, it prohibits a company from bringing back profits made from oversea sales, (without an Income Tax Structure, companies could bring home any money made overseas to invest in their infrastructure without added penalty). And on the individual level, it places the individual in an adversarial relationship with its own government. A relationship which forces the individual to justify each dollar, they receive or spend, and removes 15% or more from their disposable income. And finally, the Income tax offers diminishing returns, with the Ultra rich and politicians, creating Tax Free charitable foundations, which may spend a small percentage on charitable works, but mostly serve as Tax havens to build and maintain wealth and power, and pay themselves lucrative salaries, and use of the foundations assets. 

Therefore, I would accept the risk of a supposed 6% inflation rate per year, if I was able to keep 15% or more of my gross income. Even if we risk hyperinflation, because if the government does not live within the constraints of it economy, hyper-inflation will inevitably happen even with a Income Tax System.